U.S. Treasury auctioned off two-year notes at a coupon of 3.625%, with a high yield of 3.641%, a median yield of 3.600%, and a robust bid-to-cover ratio of approximately 2.69, indicating solid investor demand and relatively healthy auction mechanics—competitive bids totaled about $185.7 billion, of which $69.0 billion were accepted, while noncompetitive bids added another…

July new home sales slowed to an annualized pace of 652k, down 0.6% m/m and 8.2% y/y, as higher mortgage rates and softer labor conditions continued to weigh on demand. Despite June being revised up to 656k and the 30Y mortgage rate easing to 6.58%, wage growth decelerated to 3.9%, leaving affordability under pressure. Median…

Powell’s Jackson Hole speech underscored a shift in the Fed’s collective stance, framing risks as balanced between inflation and employment rather than dominated by inflation alone. While tariffs add uncertainty to the inflation outlook, the Fed views the shock as largely one-off, with long-term expectations continuing to ease. The labor market shows softening supply and…

Market RecapU.S. Treasuries traded with volatility on August 21 as investors digested conflicting economic signals. The 10-year yield closed near 4.33%, while the 30-year hovered around 4.9%, both modestly higher than the prior day. Trading volumes remained subdued ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium. Key Developments Market Sentiment Bottom LineMixed macro data left Treasuries oscillating…

Global interest rate and credit markets are currently in a delicate balance. The market generally anticipates an increased likelihood of rate cuts over the next few quarters due to slowing economic growth and relatively stable inflation, although the magnitude of any cuts is expected to be limited. The labor market remains resilient, suggesting that policy…

 July US housing data showed single-family starts rose 2.8% to 939k and permits edged up 0.5% to 870k, breaking a 4-month decline, while overall permits fell 2.8% to 1.354mn, a 5-year low, dragged by a near 10% drop in multifamily. Total starts jumped 5.2% to 1.428mn as apartment construction rebounded, with 5+ unit starts up…

 NAHB homebuilder sentiment unexpectedly fell to 32 in Aug, the lowest since Dec 2022 and below market expectations of 34, with affordability remaining the key drag as buyers wait for lower mortgage rates. Builders continue to use incentives, with 37% cutting prices by an avg 5% and 66% offering other concessions, the highest since the…

July PPI rose 0.9% MoM, well above the 0.2% consensus and prior 0%, lifting the YoY rate to 3.3% vs 2.5% expected and 2.4% prior. Services surged 1.1%, over 70% of the gain, driven by machinery and equipment wholesale margins, portfolio management fees, and higher hotel and airfare prices. Goods rose 0.7%, led by a…

Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee voiced skepticism over assumptions that tariffs won’t fuel inflation or weaken the labor market, stressing the need for several months of falling inflation alongside a clear cooling in jobs before supporting rate cuts. He noted that the recent slowdown in job growth may reflect reduced immigration rather than weak demand, with a…

說好要致歉，但每次都逃票：這份「擱下武器」協議怎麼簽的？ 根據《新華社》8 月 12 日報導，中美在斯德哥爾摩會談後發布聯合聲明，雙方同意從 2025 年 8 月 12 日起，再次暫停對對方商品徵收 24% 從價關稅，並保留剩餘 10% 關稅，期限定 90 天。這和 5 月瑞士日內瓦會談達成的結構，很像：當時也是暫停有明確期限的高關稅，並留下 10%「溫柔地篩選」。 美方視角：美國總統川普在 8 月 11 日簽署了行政命令，延長暫停期限 90 天至 11 月初，避免關稅調升，並鞏固 30%（基本）+ 殘餘 10%（高階調降部分）模式繼續執行。彭博與路透也指出：若不延長，關稅高達 145%，對等中方反制可能到 125%，將整條供應鏈都恐慌。 中方視角：中方也以對等方式響應，根據《中美斯德哥爾摩經貿會談聯合聲明》，中國同樣從 8 月 12 日起，暫停 24% 關稅 90 天，保留 10%，並根據日內瓦聲明准備「採取或維持必要措施，暫停或取消非關稅反制措施」。 簡言之：雙方像達成了某種「該打不打、該談不談」的默契，彼此都退了一步，又保留著最後那 10% 的關稅彈藥。 「川習會」見真章? 據多家外媒報導，這次延長契機或為秋季川習峰會鋪路：若談成，可能有雄心勃勃的全面協議；若談不攏，11 月 10 日後又可能迎來下一輪關稅調升。 即便短期關稅暫停，深層結構性問題如智慧財產權、產業補貼、產能過剩、金融市場准入等，仍未解決。這更像是中美之間的「婚前協議」，不是婚後真正攜手。 我們會不會開始看到「談判疲勞」文化？美媒已開始調侃：川普每次都「談，談，談」卻反覆延遲，像是在打開同一份報告？中國官宣「互利共贏」這句話出現頻率又高起來，彷彿成了最貴的政治廣告詞。 中美這場「第…