UST yields climbed as bond funds and institutional investors trimmed long-dated exposure amid growing questions over the pace of policy easing and structural supply concerns; the 10Y yield rose to around 4.01% (+4bp) while 2Y also ticked upward, illustrating waning conviction in a clean path lower and highlighting term premium as a mounting headwind. Commentary from dealer surveys and fund managers pointed to heavy issuance, fiscal strain and Fed independence doubts as key constraints on lower yields, shifting focus from “when will we cut” to “how much upside risk remains.” With credit and duration trades under pressure and geopolitics adding tilt, markets have entered a “buy the dip, sell the rally” regime until clearer data – notably core inflation prints, auction metrics and central-bank signals – provide directional clarity.

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