美國通膨與貨幣政策 美國 5 月 CPI 年增率升至 4.2%，為三年來首度突破 4%，主要由能源價格上漲驅動 。然而核心 CPI 年增僅 2.9%，月比升幅 0.2% 低於預期，顯示住房與車險等項目仍受控 。推測聯準會保持耐心，不急於升息，市場共識將降息時點修正至 6 月，全年預計降息 2 碼 。Fed 偏好的 PCE 通膨指標預計 2026 年平均 2.7%，到 2027 年中才回落到 2% 目標 。 美債殖利率曲線動態 美國 10 年期國債殖利率目前約 4.48%，高於長期平均 4.25% 。10 年期收益率反映短端利率加上市場對未來通膨與景氣預期，走揚意味著市場對經濟持續看好 。2 年期與 10 年期利差目前約 +0.65%，曲線呈現變陡趨勢，短期利率壓力正傳導至長端 。 就業與經濟成長 美國失業率 4.1%，非農就業月增 147 千人，就業市場趨於穩定支撐 Fed 觀望立場 。GDP 年增率 2%，連續兩季展現強勁成長動能，Q4…

​

Last night, the United States released the final January S&P Services PMI at 52.7, a slight upward revision and better than the prior reading; the ISM Services Index came in at 53.8, above expectations but unchanged from the previous figure. Slower growth in new orders and employment offset the accelerated expansion in services output, while…

Last night, the release of the U.S. JOLTS jobs data was postponed due to the partial shutdown of the federal government, while comments from Federal Reserve officials were mixed in tone. Richmond Fed President Barkin, a voting member next year, said that last year’s rate cuts helped support the labor market and that policymakers are…

Last night, the US released the January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final) at 52.4, a slight upward revision and better than the prior reading. The ISM Manufacturing Index printed 52.6, the fastest pace of expansion since 2022, mainly driven by strong growth in new orders and production, while the employment and supply chain transportation components…

U.S. December PPI year-on-year came in at 3.0%, and core PPI year-on-year at 3.3%, slightly above both expectations and the prior readings, with service costs surging and data showing that an increasing number of companies are gradually passing on tariff costs, raising concerns that inflationary pressures may remain elevated.U.S. President Trump said on Friday that…

Last night, the U.S. reported November factory orders rising 2.7% month-on-month, beating expectations and the prior reading. Durable goods orders (final) increased 5.3% MoM, while core durable goods orders (final) rose 0.4%, mainly driven by transportation. Initial jobless claims came in at 209,000, slightly above the four-week average of 206,000; continuing claims stood at 1.827…

​ 政策與利率立場 通膨、關稅與經濟前景 就業與勞動市場 關於美元、財政與 AI 美聯儲獨立性與個人去留 給下一任主席的首要建議是「遠離民選政治」，並積極與國會溝通，以維持民主問責與信任。 鮑威爾多次拒絕就自身任期屆滿後去留、國會調查及具名參議員的政治施壓發言，僅重申不在此場合討論政治問題。​ 他強調，美聯儲獨立性對於避免貨幣政策被選舉政治利用至關重要，一旦失去獨立與公信力，極難恢復，並表示自己與同僚對維護獨立性有非常堅定的承諾。​ 2026 年 1 月 FOMC 聲明相對 2025 年 12 月關鍵措辭變化

UST 10s rose 3bp to 4.25% overnight amid FOMC statement noted solid growth, stabilizing unemployment, elevated inflation. The FOMC voted 10 to 2 to keep the target range for federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller voted against the action in favour of a 25bp cut. In the…

U.S. November durable goods orders (preliminary) rose 5.3% month-over-month, while core durable goods orders (preliminary) grew 0.5% month-over-month, both beating expectations and marking the largest increase in six months, supported by strong demand for commercial aircraft and other capital equipment. The 2-year U.S. Treasury auction held overnight showed strong demand, with combined direct and indirect…