After the Fed delivered a widely anticipated 25bp rate cut, capping the federal funds target at 4.00-4.25%, markets reacted violently to mixed signals: the FOMC statement acknowledged a weakening job market and rising unemployment, while economic projections forecast inflation to remain elevated and growth modest, creating tension between dovish and hawkish narratives. Powell’s press conference…

UST10Y eased slightly to ~4.04% from ~4.06% as investors priced in a nearly certain 25 bp Fed rate cut at the upcoming meeting, while short-dated yields fell more modestly, keeping the yield curve modestly steeper. Buy-and-hold demand in longer maturities strengthened, supported by soft labor data and lower inflation pressure, though fiscal risks and heavy…

US CPI for August rose 0.4%m/m and 2.9%y/y, slightly hotter than expected while core CPI held at +0.3%m/m and ~3.1%y/y, with shelter and airline fares pushing headline inflation higher. UST10Y briefly dropped below 4.00% following the release but closed nearer ~4.02% as markets parsed mixed signals; UST2Y held relatively steady amid rising odds of a…

Treasury yields drifted lower as fading labor momentum and inflation concerns bolstered expectations for a September rate cut, with UST10Y around 4.06% and UST2Y edging down toward ~3.56%, causing the 10-2 spread to widen back toward ~50 bp—the highest since early summer. A Reuters poll of bond strategists showed rising consensus for curve steepening in…

US CPI for August rose 0.4%m/m vs 0.3% expected and y/y to 2.9% (from 2.7%), core CPI +0.3%m/m, ~3.1%y/y, driven by shelter and transport costs. UST10Y yield dropped to ~4.022% after the release, down ~5-6bp intraday, while UST2Y saw a smaller decline to around ~3.54%, yielding a 10-2 spread near 48-55bp depending on session highs.…

Firmer-than-expected easing in producer inflation reinforced rate-cut expectations, sending UST sharply lower: 10Y dropped to ≈4.045% (−2.9 bp) and 30Y eased ≈2.4 bp, marking the lowest Treasury yields since April, while a $39 bn 10Y auction drew solid demand, aiding yield compression and curve stabilization. Global stocks rallied as inflation concerns waned, with record highs…

UST yields continued their slide as markets digested the surprisingly soft labor data, with 10-year ending around 4.08%, marking a fresh low and down from ~4.05% the previous day, while the 2-year stood lower, hovering near its April lows amid heightened rate-cut expectations; this drove a modest bull-steepening in the curve (10-2 spread at ~54…

Investor optimism over a Fed rate cut this month—spurred by weak US payrolls data—drove UST lower across the curve, with 10Y ending near 4.05% (−5 bp) and 2Y slipping to ~3.50% as markets priced in up to 50 bp of easing; the 10–2 curve held around 56 bp. Simultaneously, Treasury is ramping ultra-short issuance, hitting…

NFP rose just 22k in August vs 75k expected, with prior revised up to 79k, marking a sharp slowdown as manufacturing jobs fell for a fifth month and part-time hiring surged while full-time roles declined. Unemployment ticked up to 4.3% amid lower participation, average hourly earnings eased to 3.7% y/y, and Challenger layoffs plus elevated…

ISM Services PMI rose to 52, a 6-month high on stronger new orders and business activity, though import prices jumped to 54.6 as firms front-loaded for inflation and holiday demand. In contrast, ADP printed just 54k vs prior 104k and Challenger layoffs surged 39% m/m, aligning with JOLTS weakness and signaling labor market deterioration. The…