Offline24h

Fixed income markets experienced a sharp sell-off in the immediate aftermath of the US Federal Reserve’s October FOMC meeting, despite the committee delivering the widely expected 25bp rate cut to bring the Fed funds target range to 3.75–4.0%. The adverse reaction, characterized by rising yields (falling bond prices), stemmed directly from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision commentary. Powell explicitly cautioned that a December rate cut was “not a forgone conclusion… far from it” , creating significant discord and repricing the market’s expectation for future policy easing. This warning effectively removed the assumption of a clear, aggressive easing path that had been priced into Fed funds futures. The long-end of the UST curve reacted negatively to this muted anticipation of a December cut. Specifically, the US 10Y yield had been hugging the 4% area but spiked up to 4.05% post-announcement, indicating a sentiment shift from looking down to looking up for a change. Furthermore, longer tenors were unhelped by the Fed’s second key decision to stop the shrinkage of its balance sheet from December 1, as the move involves reinvesting maturing Treasury securities and offsetting maturing agency MBS by buying T-bills. The T-bills buying, as a stand-alone measure, offers no benefit to longer bonds. The decision also exposed internal divisions, with two dissents: one official preferring a 50bp cut and another favoring no change. Overall, the message that the policy rate may be closer to neutral than the market previously believed upset risk assets and prompted a re-pricing of the Fed cycle, which is expected to provide continued support to the Dollar. The prevailing view among analysts is that while the economic assessment—”moderate pace” of expansion, “slowed job gains,” and “somewhat elevated inflation”—was unchanged from September , the increased uncertainty surrounding the next move drove the fixed income sell-off. Despite the market’s immediate sharp repricing, some analysts still forecast a December move with two more cuts in 2026, driven by a potentially rapidly cooling jobs market.

UST yields dipped at the start of the 10/22–10/23 trading window as soft labor data and a prolonged U.S. government shutdown boosted safe-haven flows, with the 10Y closing near 4.02% (down ~2–3 bp) and the 2Y edging lower toward ~3.54%, causing the curve subtly steepen. However, the decline in yields failed to gather momentum as mounting Treasury issuance and elevated term premium emerged as significant headwinds; dealers cited heavier long-end supply and limited buyer depth which capped potential gains for longer maturities. The market interpreted this tug-of-war as a recalibration phase: even if policy cuts are still expected, structural risks like green-lighting fiscal deficits and geopolitical uncertainties have begun to dominate duration pricing. Investors continue to factor in a gradual Fed easing path rather than a swift move, and are now closely watching upcoming inflation data and auction results for clues on whether the rally in Treasuries can resume or if yields need to reprice higher to reflect persistent back-end constraints.

UST yields climbed as bond funds and institutional investors trimmed long-dated exposure amid growing questions over the pace of policy easing and structural supply concerns; the 10Y yield rose to around 4.01% (+4bp) while 2Y also ticked upward, illustrating waning conviction in a clean path lower and highlighting term premium as a mounting headwind. Commentary from dealer surveys and fund managers pointed to heavy issuance, fiscal strain and Fed independence doubts as key constraints on lower yields, shifting focus from “when will we cut” to “how much upside risk remains.” With credit and duration trades under pressure and geopolitics adding tilt, markets have entered a “buy the dip, sell the rally” regime until clearer data – notably core inflation prints, auction metrics and central-bank signals – provide directional clarity.

USTs extended gains as risk-off sentiment deepened amid renewed political uncertainty and a string of soft U.S. data suggesting economic cooling. The 10Y yield slipped to around 3.96%(−4bp) while 2Y fell to 4.18%(−3bp), modestly steepening the curve. Weaker-than-expected initial jobless claims and sluggish housing starts reinforced the narrative that the labor market and broader economy are losing momentum, prompting investors to price in a higher probability of a December Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Jefferson emphasized that monetary policy remains restrictive and that inflation progress, while encouraging, is still incomplete—remarks that tempered the dovish repricing. Heavy Treasury supply and lingering concerns over fiscal sustainability capped gains, as demand for long-dated paper remains uneven. The market also tracked geopolitical headlines after new escalations in the Middle East and continued U.S. government shutdown risks, both amplifying the bid for safe-haven assets. Swap spreads tightened across the curve, and the 3M/10Y inversion narrowed to its smallest level since April, suggesting easing front-end pressures. Overall, the tone in rates remains constructive but cautious—investors are hedging for downside growth risk while staying alert to potential supply-driven yield rebounds if risk sentiment stabilizes.

UST yields edged lower on Monday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of key U.S. economic releases later this week. The 2Y yield eased 2bp to 3.97%, while the 10Y fell 3bp to 4.09%, modestly steepening the curve. The move reflected light position-squaring after last week’s volatile session driven by mixed retail sales and hawkish Fed rhetoric. Fed officials reiterated that policy remains data-dependent, but markets continued to price in a 25bp cut by year-end amid softening labor indicators and easing inflation expectations. The session saw subdued flows, with Treasury auctions well-received and corporate supply remaining thin. In Europe, Bund yields mirrored the U.S. move lower, with 10Y down 2bp to 2.30% following weaker-than-expected German PPI data. Meanwhile, gilts outperformed as investors trimmed risk exposure ahead of U.K. CPI figures due mid-week. The broader fixed-income tone stayed constructive, supported by expectations of a near-term Fed pause and slowing global growth momentum. Still, traders remain wary that elevated term premium and heavy issuance could cap further rally potential, keeping yields range-bound into month-end.

UST yields edged somewhat lower as investors queued up ahead of the delayed September CPI release and digested signals that the Fed may pause its QT programme; 10Y slid to ~4.02% (down ~3bp) while 2Y hovered around ~3.55% as risk-off flows resurfaced and term premium concerns lingered. Despite weak job data and persistent shutdown risk, heavy supply and fiscal uncertainty prevented further yield compression, with markets recalibrating for gradual rather than aggressive easing; safe-haven demand peaked briefly but reversed as bank credit fears subsided. Focus now turns to inflation prints and Fed speeches to determine whether the yield trough is intact or poised for another leg higher.

UST yields reversed their recent slide as concerns over bank credit exposure and liquidity stresses in the U.S. banking sector gained prominence, with the 10Y yield briefly falling to 3.93% intraday before rebounding to ~4.01% (+3.5bp) and the 2Y yield holding firm amid curve flattening; elevated repo facility usage, a stalled government shutdown and uncertainty around the pace of future Fed cuts all reinforced term premium and pushed long yields higher despite dovish undertones from the central bank.

UST 10Y yield slipped below 4.00%, settling at approximately 3.976% amid heightened risk aversion and weak macro signals, while shorter tenors also retraced slightly as dovish expectations reemerged; the inversion between short and long rates narrowed as long yield weakness outpaced declines at the front end. The move reflected a confluence of headwinds: U.S.-China tensions, prolonged government shutdown, banking stress and soft regional activity reports, all of which have amplified expectations for aggressive Fed easing. Given this backdrop, bond markets are now trialing whether lower yields can be sustained ahead of key inflation prints and renewed fiscal clarity

總體經濟與投資策略展望

核心策略：在信用利差緊縮的環境下，強調信用篩選與品質優先。偏好證券化產品(如結構性信用、機構MBS)、高品質公司債以及具有長期順風的領域(如基礎設施)。保持多元化配置，並預留空間在利差擴大時增加信用風險曝險。

經濟成長放緩：預期美國實質GDP成長率將放緩至1.7%，並在2026年維持相近水準。高收入家庭消費與AI投資是主要支撐，但住房市場、低收入家庭及勞動市場面臨挑戰。

聯準會政策：預期2025年將再進行兩次25 bps的降息，Fed Fund Rate上限降至3.75%，並在2026年底趨向3%或更低。

各類資產觀點

1. 利率
   • 預期10年期公債殖利率將在3.75%-4.75%區間波動，收益率曲線趨於陡峭。
   • 戰術性調整存續期間，並在通膨環境和聯準會寬鬆政策下看好抗通膨債券。
2. 投資級公司債
   • 利差已壓縮至數十年來的低點。
   • 建議提高品質，偏好銀行、保險業的無擔保債券和特別股。公用事業混合型證券因有票面利率下限而具吸引力。
3. 高收益公司債
   • 利差接近歷史低點，違約率維持在低檔。
   • 強勁的再融資活動主導市場，未來回報預計將主要由票息收入驅動。
4. 銀行貸款
   • 強勁的CLO發行持續支持市場。
   • 併購活動低迷限制新發行量，市場集中於再融資。信貸篩選在尾端風險下至關重要。
5. 私募債務
   • 利差持續壓縮，PIK(實物支付)利息的使用日益普遍，顯示下行保護減弱。
   • 嚴格的核保標準在面對市場結構變化時至關重要。
6. 資產抵押證券與CLO
   • ABS利差雖收緊，但相對於投資級公司債仍具相對價值機會，偏好商業ABS。
   • CLO因強勁的基礎資產表現和良好的信用基本面而具吸引力，預期新發行量將減少。
7. 商業不動產抵押貸款證券
   • 資產選擇是關鍵。偏好多戶住宅和工業資產的CMBS。
   • 辦公樓領域持續面臨挑戰，即使高等級證券也可能出現虧損。
8. 非機構住房抵押貸款證券
   • 在利率下降環境中，偏好具有提前還款保護的次順位抵押貸款、房屋淨值信用額度和非合格抵押貸款。
9. 機構抵押貸款證券
   • 當前平價券提供具吸引力的利差和收益率，且提前還款風險有限。
   • 折價券因供需失衡也可能表現良好。
10. 市政債券
    • 由於收益率曲線陡峭，長期市政債券相對短期債券具備較高價值。
    • 聯邦刺激資金耗盡可能對州和地方財政構成壓力。
11. 實質資產
    • 基礎設施債務發行量激增，提供具吸引力的利差和成長潛力，受數位化、電網升級和能源轉型推動。
    • 商業地產市場趨於穩定(辦公樓除外)，多戶住宅預計將出現溫和租金成長。

總結

我們認為，在經濟放緩與聯準會降息的背景下，固定收益提供了具吸引力的收益率和總回報潛力。然而，在信用利差普遍緊縮的情況下，主動管理、嚴格的信用篩選和多元化配置對於管理風險和發掘超額回報至關重要。投資策略側重於高品質收入和相對價值機會，特別偏好證券化產品和特定結構性信貸領域。

本文僅供資訊參考，不應被視為對任何特定證券、策略或投資產品的推薦，或任何形式的投資建議。

UST yields fell modestly as Powell struck a softer tone, highlighting that labor markets had weakened and signaling that the Fed may soon halt balance sheet runoff, reducing liquidity pressures. His comments reinforced belief in a near-term cut, pushing down long yields with 10Y dipping toward ~4.02% (−2-3bp) while 2Y yields eased slightly, steepening the curve. Nevertheless, the decline was capped: concerns over heavy issuance, sticky inflation, and elevated term premium prevented deeper retreat. Markets now await the release of the Fed minutes and incoming macro prints to validate whether the dovish repricing will persist or whether hawkish forces reassert control.