Offline24h

U.S. Treasury auctioned off two-year notes at a coupon of 3.625%, with a high yield of 3.641%, a median yield of 3.600%, and a robust bid-to-cover ratio of approximately 2.69, indicating solid investor demand and relatively healthy auction mechanics—competitive bids totaled about $185.7 billion, of which $69.0 billion were accepted, while noncompetitive bids added another $330 million, including $305 million via FIMA, reflecting continued confidence from foreign and institutional buyers . Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s announcement of his attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud rattled observers though markets took the move largely in stride: yields on longer-dated Treasuries edged modestly higher and the yield curve steepened somewhat, even as stocks and gold remained roughly flat, and the dollar trimmed earlier losses—perhaps because markets perceived Trump’s push as aligned with growing expectations for Fed easing, with uncertainty over legal authority further muting immediate reaction. Governor Cook swiftly vowed to contest the firing in court, asserting the president lacks the statutory authority to remove her absent cause, setting the stage for a protracted and precedent-setting legal battle over central bank independence

July new home sales slowed to an annualized pace of 652k, down 0.6% m/m and 8.2% y/y, as higher mortgage rates and softer labor conditions continued to weigh on demand. Despite June being revised up to 656k and the 30Y mortgage rate easing to 6.58%, wage growth decelerated to 3.9%, leaving affordability under pressure. Median new home prices fell 5.9% y/y to $403.8k, an 8-month low, while inventory held at 499k units with a 9.2-month supply, underscoring weak absorption. Builder discounting reached the highest since 2022, signaling fragile demand and expectations that residential investment will contract for a third straight quarter, with inventory overhang further limiting near-term starts. In rates, European sovereigns were pressured as French 30Y yields hit a near 14-year high on fiscal concerns, spilling over to peripherals, while USTs edged higher with 10Y closing at 4.279% (+3bp) after trading 4.26%-4.29% and 2Y ending at 3.726% (+3bp) within a 3.70%-3.73% range. Attention now shifts to July durable goods, capex orders, FHFA home prices, and Aug consumer confidence, with consensus pointing to partial rebounds in orders but softer sentiment.

Powell’s Jackson Hole speech underscored a shift in the Fed’s collective stance, framing risks as balanced between inflation and employment rather than dominated by inflation alone. While tariffs add uncertainty to the inflation outlook, the Fed views the shock as largely one-off, with long-term expectations continuing to ease. The labor market shows softening supply and demand without a rise in unemployment, though downside risks are mounting. Structural inflation pressures from trade and immigration constraints are beyond policy control, but cyclical weakness warrants a preventive easing approach. The Fed has effectively paved the way for a Sep rate cut, signaling a shift away from the symmetric inflation target and natural rate framework, enabling policy to ease as inflation moderates without waiting for a labor market deterioration. Markets now anticipate a quarterly pace of 25bp cuts, with flexibility to accelerate if labor conditions weaken. USTs rallied on the speech, with 10Y yields falling 7bp to 4.25%, down 6bp on the week within a 4.35%-4.24% range, while 2Y dropped 7bp to 3.71%, down 4bp on the week after trading 3.80%-3.67%. Focus turns to July new home sales, expected to ease slightly to 626k from 627k.

Market Recap
U.S. Treasuries traded with volatility on August 21 as investors digested conflicting economic signals. The 10-year yield closed near 4.33%, while the 30-year hovered around 4.9%, both modestly higher than the prior day. Trading volumes remained subdued ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium.

Key Developments

• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug): Fell sharply to -0.3 vs. expectations of 6.8, signaling weakening regional manufacturing momentum.
• Initial Jobless Claims: Rose to 235,000 (+11k from prior week), pointing to labor market softening.
• Short-term Bill Auction: 8-week T-Bill cleared at 4.22%, reflecting strong demand at the front end despite looming Fed cut expectations.
• Yield Curve: Long-end yields pushed slightly higher, while front-end rates remained anchored, underscoring the market’s split view between slowing growth and policy normalization.

Market Sentiment

• Investors remain cautious, with activity muted as they await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
• The symposium is expected to provide crucial guidance on the Fed’s stance into Q4, particularly regarding the September meeting.

Bottom Line
Mixed macro data left Treasuries oscillating but biased higher. Weak manufacturing and rising claims underscored economic fragility, yet yields stayed firm as traders positioned ahead of Powell’s guidance at Jackson Hole.

Global interest rate and credit markets are currently in a delicate balance. The market generally anticipates an increased likelihood of rate cuts over the next few quarters due to slowing economic growth and relatively stable inflation, although the magnitude of any cuts is expected to be limited. The labor market remains resilient, suggesting that policy adjustments are unlikely to be overly aggressive. In the short term, rates may stay relatively stable, particularly as markets await further guidance from central banks. Looking at the medium term, if economic data continues to weaken, markets may gradually price in expected rate cuts, potentially causing a slight decline in long-term yields, though overall volatility remains influenced by uncertainty. Investors are closely watching for insights from the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.744%, while the 10-year yield ended at 4.298%.

 July US housing data showed single-family starts rose 2.8% to 939k and permits edged up 0.5% to 870k, breaking a 4-month decline, while overall permits fell 2.8% to 1.354mn, a 5-year low, dragged by a near 10% drop in multifamily. Total starts jumped 5.2% to 1.428mn as apartment construction rebounded, with 5+ unit starts up 11.6% to the highest since May 2023. Despite a dip in the 30Y mortgage rate to 6.58%, affordability remains constrained and weak demand continues to cap builder activity. In rates, USTs rallied as yields reversed a 3-day climb, with 10Y hitting a session high of 4.34% in early European trade before sliding below 4.30% during US hours and ending near 4.31% (-2bp). The 2Y also touched 3.77% in Asia before easing below 3.74% intraday and closing around 3.75% (-1bp). No major US data releases today.

 NAHB homebuilder sentiment unexpectedly fell to 32 in Aug, the lowest since Dec 2022 and below market expectations of 34, with affordability remaining the key drag as buyers wait for lower mortgage rates. Builders continue to use incentives, with 37% cutting prices by an avg 5% and 66% offering other concessions, the highest since the pandemic. While traffic ticked up to a 3-month high, overall sales remain sluggish despite mortgage rates easing to 6.58%, the lowest since Oct 2023. Markets expect the Fed to resume rate cuts in Sep, potentially easing financing costs and stabilizing housing, though upcoming July housing starts and permits are unlikely to show material improvement given prior declines. In rates, UST yields extended their climb for a third session, with 10Y hitting a 2-week high after briefly dipping below 4.29% in European trading before rebounding to 4.35% in early US hours and settling near 4.33% (+1bp). The 2Y also touched a low of 3.74% before rising to 3.77%, the highest since last Tue, and ending around 3.76% (+1bp). Markets now await Aug housing starts (cons 1.30mn vs prior 1.321mn) and permits (cons 1.388mn vs prior 1.393mn) for further signals on the housing outlook.

July PPI rose 0.9% MoM, well above the 0.2% consensus and prior 0%, lifting the YoY rate to 3.3% vs 2.5% expected and 2.4% prior. Services surged 1.1%, over 70% of the gain, driven by machinery and equipment wholesale margins, portfolio management fees, and higher hotel and airfare prices. Goods rose 0.7%, led by a 1.4% jump in food as vegetable, beef, and egg prices climbed, indicating some tariff pass-through. From July, BLS ceased publishing ~350 series due to resource constraints, raising data quality concerns. Initial jobless claims fell to 224K from 227K, below the 225K forecast; continuing claims dropped to 1.953M, underscoring a still-tight labor market. Post-PPI, 2Y UST yields rebounded from over a one-week low, tracking a broad rise in core EU yields. UK Gilts led after Q2 GDP surprised at +0.3%. The 10Y UST, which had dipped to 4.1979% pre-data, climbed to 4.2946% intraday before settling near 4.28%, +5bp on the day. 2Y yields, down to 3.6513% earlier, spiked to 3.7449% and ended ~3.73%, +6bp, snapping a two-day decline. Focus now shifts to July retail sales (0.3% vs 0.6% prior), Aug NY Fed manufacturing (0 vs 5.5 prior), and Aug Michigan sentiment (62 vs 61.7 prior).

Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee voiced skepticism over assumptions that tariffs won’t fuel inflation or weaken the labor market, stressing the need for several months of falling inflation alongside a clear cooling in jobs before supporting rate cuts. He noted that the recent slowdown in job growth may reflect reduced immigration rather than weak demand, with a 4.2% unemployment rate and low layoffs signaling labor market resilience. Ahead of the September FOMC, he will remain data-dependent and adjust his stance as needed. On the fiscal side, July’s deficit widened 19% YoY to $291B, with tariff receipts surging to $27.7B—more than triple last year on Trump-era hikes—but overshadowed by record spending, notably +10% in healthcare and +9% in Social Security, while interest payments hit new highs, underscoring persistent fiscal strain. UST yields fell across the curve as markets priced in September Fed cuts; NY close saw 10Y at 4.2326% (-5.62bp, range 4.3004%-4.2230%) and 2Y at 3.6745% (-5.63bp, range 3.7412%-3.6641%). Core European sovereigns followed, with long-end Bunds down over 7bp and OATs, BTPs, and Bonos at least 7bp lower. Focus now shifts to July PPI, expected to accelerate from 2.3% to 2.5% YoY.

“就像一對吵到要分手的戀人突然決定‘再試試三個月’，中美兩國在瑞典斯德哥爾摩的談判桌上，第N次按下了關稅升級的暫停鍵。只不過這次，雙方默契地保留了10%的‘情感稅’——大概是為了防止分手後罵對方‘當初對我太仁慈’。”

說好要致歉，但每次都逃票：這份「擱下武器」協議怎麼簽的？

根據《新華社》8 月 12 日報導，中美在斯德哥爾摩會談後發布聯合聲明，雙方同意從 2025 年 8 月 12 日起，再次暫停對對方商品徵收 24% 從價關稅，並保留剩餘 10% 關稅，期限定 90 天。這和 5 月瑞士日內瓦會談達成的結構，很像：當時也是暫停有明確期限的高關稅，並留下 10%「溫柔地篩選」。

美方視角：美國總統川普在 8 月 11 日簽署了行政命令，延長暫停期限 90 天至 11 月初，避免關稅調升，並鞏固 30%（基本）+ 殘餘 10%（高階調降部分）模式繼續執行。彭博與路透也指出：若不延長，關稅高達 145%，對等中方反制可能到 125%，將整條供應鏈都恐慌。

中方視角：中方也以對等方式響應，根據《中美斯德哥爾摩經貿會談聯合聲明》，中國同樣從 8 月 12 日起，暫停 24% 關稅 90 天，保留 10%，並根據日內瓦聲明准備「採取或維持必要措施，暫停或取消非關稅反制措施」。

簡言之：雙方像達成了某種「該打不打、該談不談」的默契，彼此都退了一步，又保留著最後那 10% 的關稅彈藥。

「川習會」見真章?

據多家外媒報導，這次延長契機或為秋季川習峰會鋪路：若談成，可能有雄心勃勃的全面協議；若談不攏，11 月 10 日後又可能迎來下一輪關稅調升。

即便短期關稅暫停，深層結構性問題如智慧財產權、產業補貼、產能過剩、金融市場准入等，仍未解決。這更像是中美之間的「婚前協議」，不是婚後真正攜手。

我們會不會開始看到「談判疲勞」文化？美媒已開始調侃：川普每次都「談，談，談」卻反覆延遲，像是在打開同一份報告？中國官宣「互利共贏」這句話出現頻率又高起來，彷彿成了最貴的政治廣告詞。

中美這場「第 N 次暫停打架協議」既充滿政治戰略，也暗藏生活中的無奈與幽默。但也別只嘲笑它有多「循環加戲」。這次延長的 90 天，也是一個喘息機會：海運能暫緩排期、企業能調整物流、國際市場能稍微穩定下來。就像夫妻吵架後的冷戰，不代表離婚，而是暫時不再惡言相向。

所以，當全球媒體又寫下一篇「中美延長關稅暫停 90 天」的新聞，你可以在旁邊看到：這背後是一場外交與現實交織的小劇場──既有權力象徵，也有你我生活的成本和選擇。
下次，我們再看看 11 月初，是否會見到真正的破局？或又是另一輪「停火延期」的戲碼？