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Last night, the United States released the final January S&P Services PMI at 52.7, a slight upward revision and better than the prior reading; the ISM Services Index came in at 53.8, above expectations but unchanged from the previous figure. Slower growth in new orders and employment offset the accelerated expansion in services output, while a sharp contraction in the inventory sub-index suggested that producers generally see inventories as too high, and weakening demand points to a potential slowdown in U.S. services activity.

Federal Reserve officials’ remarks were cautiously hawkish. Fed Governor Cook stated that the current policy stance is mildly restrictive, but the Fed still must bring inflation back to target in the near future to safeguard its credibility, and that monetary policy should not be used to manage government debt. In addition, Fed Governor Miran has resigned from his role as a senior White House economic adviser, ending the unusual dual-hatted arrangement he has held since joining in September of last year. His term as a member of the Fed Board expired on January 31, but he may continue to serve on the Board of Governors until a successor is confirmed.

U.S. Treasury yields were mixed following the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, and the yield curve became steeper. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 1.6 basis points to close at 3.55%; the 5-year Treasury yield dipped 0.2 basis points to 3.83%; the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.8 basis points to 4.27%; and the 30-year Treasury yield climbed 2.3 basis points to 4.92%. In spreads, the yield curve steepening pushed the 2s10s positive spread to 72.0 basis points, and the 5s30s positive spread to 108.7 basis points. Tonight, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) will hold their monetary policy meetings. The United States will also release the JOLTS Job Openings data.

Last night, the release of the U.S. JOLTS jobs data was postponed due to the partial shutdown of the federal government, while comments from Federal Reserve officials were mixed in tone. Richmond Fed President Barkin, a voting member next year, said that last year’s rate cuts helped support the labor market and that policymakers are now focused on bringing inflation back to the Fed’s target. Fed Governor Miran, a permanent voter, noted that there are no strong price pressures in the economy, implying that what he described as a still‑restrictive level of interest rates will need to be lowered again this year. In the primary market, there were nine issuers in total, bringing more than USD 21.4 billion of new supply, with financial names such as Bank of America, American Express and Visa making up the bulk of issuance. U.S. Treasuries, however, were mainly driven by the pullback in U.S. equities, as tech shares came under renewed selling pressure and a mild pickup in risk‑off sentiment pushed Treasury yields modestly lower into the close. The 2‑year Treasury yield fell 0.2 basis point to 3.57%, the 5‑year fell 0.3 basis point to 3.83%, the 10‑year declined 1.2 basis points to 4.27%, and the 30‑year was down 1.8 basis points at 4.89%. On the spread side, the yield curve flattened further, with the 2s10s positive spread closing at 69.6 basis points and the 5s30s positive spread at 106.3 basis points. Given that U.S. equities are consolidating near their highs, today the 10‑year Treasury yield is expected to continue trading in a 4.20%–4.26% range. Tonight, the U.S. will release ADP private payrolls and the ISM services index.

Separately, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly hiked rates by 25 basis points yesterday, lifting the cash rate to 3.85%. In its post‑meeting statement, the RBA noted that part of the rise in inflation reflects capacity constraints, and therefore the Board judges that inflation will remain above target for some time. Those capacity pressures stem from stronger‑than‑expected demand momentum, with private‑sector demand growth driven by household consumption and investment. The labour market remains tight, in line with the recent trend of solid economic activity. At the subsequent press conference, Governor Bullock said the Bank remains cautious about the current inflation outlook and gave no explicit forward guidance on the future path of interest rates.

Last night, the US released the January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final) at 52.4, a slight upward revision and better than the prior reading. The ISM Manufacturing Index printed 52.6, the fastest pace of expansion since 2022, mainly driven by strong growth in new orders and production, while the employment and supply chain transportation components also rose significantly. Federal Reserve officials’ remarks leaned hawkish. Atlanta Fed President Bostic (a voting member next year) stated that he sees economic growth momentum as very strong, that policy rates need to be kept at a moderately restrictive level, and that he does not expect any rate cuts this year. US Treasury yields turned bearish and moved higher on the back of the strong cyclical data. The 2‑year Treasury yield rose 4.9 bps to close at 3.57%; the 5‑year rose 4.7 bps to 3.83%; the 10‑year rose 4.2 bps to 4.28%; and the 30‑year rose 3.9 bps to 4.91%. On the spread side, the yield curve saw a slight flattening, with the positive 2s10s spread closing at 70.6 bps and the positive 5s30s spread closing at 107.7 bps. Today, the 10‑year US Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate in a 4.24–4.32% range, with the market tone still tilted bearish. Labor market and activity data to be released over the next two days will be key. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will also hold its policy meeting this morning.

U.S. December PPI year-on-year came in at 3.0%, and core PPI year-on-year at 3.3%, slightly above both expectations and the prior readings, with service costs surging and data showing that an increasing number of companies are gradually passing on tariff costs, raising concerns that inflationary pressures may remain elevated.
U.S. President Trump said on Friday that he will nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, and later Fed Governor Miran said he expects the Fed chair nominee put forward by Trump will be able to effectively lead the monetary policy committee.
Fed officials’ remarks were neutral to slightly hawkish: Atlanta Fed President Bostic (a voting member next year) said that elevated inflation means the Fed should first hold rates steady and then consider whether to cut again later, while St. Louis Fed President Musalem (non‑voter this year and next) said officials should pause further rate cuts for now to avoid exacerbating inflation pressures.​
U.S. Treasury yields ended mixed, mainly because confirmation of the next Fed chair nomination drove a more pronounced move in the yield curve, while gold fell more than 10%, silver dropped over 26%, and the dollar rebounded, providing support to the front end.
The 2‑year Treasury yield fell 3.7 basis points to close at 3.52%; the 5‑year Treasury yield fell 2.8 basis points to 3.79%; the 10‑year Treasury yield rose 0.4 basis points to 4.24%; and the 30‑year Treasury yield climbed 2.0 basis points to 4.87%.
On spreads, the yield curve steepened notably, with the positive 2s10s spread closing at 71.3 basis points and the positive 5s30s spread at 108.4 basis points.​
Today, the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to trade in a range of 4.20%–4.26%, and tonight the U.S. will release the final S&P manufacturing PMI and the ISM manufacturing index.

Last night, the U.S. reported November factory orders rising 2.7% month-on-month, beating expectations and the prior reading. Durable goods orders (final) increased 5.3% MoM, while core durable goods orders (final) rose 0.4%, mainly driven by transportation. Initial jobless claims came in at 209,000, slightly above the four-week average of 206,000; continuing claims stood at 1.827 million, marking the fourth consecutive weekly decline, indicating a labor market showing steady but modest growth. At the Treasury’s 7-year note auction overnight, the combined share of direct and indirect bidders was 89.1%, down from 90.6% previously. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.45 times, slightly lower than the prior 2.51 times. The auction yield was 4.018%, roughly in line with the secondary market at the bidding deadline. With U.S. equities correcting and gold and silver prices erasing earlier gains, risk-off sentiment lent mild support to Treasuries. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 1.2 bps to 3.56%; the 5-year dropped 1.2 bps to 3.82%; the 10-year declined 1.2 bps to 4.23%; and the 30-year edged down 0.2 bps to 4.85%. On the curve, long-end steepening continued — the 2s10s spread widened to +67.2 bps and the 5s30s spread to +103.7 bps. Given month-end portfolio rebalancing flows, the 10-year Treasury yield is expected to remain range-bound between 4.20% and 4.26%. The U.S. is set to release PPI data later today.

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政策與利率立場

• 鮑威爾認為當前利率水準大致處於中性區間高端，稱「很難說政策在很大程度上是明顯偏緊」，可能是中性或略偏緊。​
• 目前委員中沒有人把「下一步再度升息」視為基本情境，但也不預先承諾未來只會降息。​
• FOMC 本次會議維持利率不變，強調之後將「按會議逐次」依據數據決策，未設定明確的下一次降息條件測試。​

通膨、關稅與經濟前景

• 核心 PCE 過去 12 個月約 3%，表面上對 2% 目標沒有進展，但鮑威爾強調「超標部分很大一塊來自關稅推升商品物價」，屬一次性價格水準抬升，而非持續通膨壓力。​
• 美聯儲和市場預期：關稅對通膨的影響將在今年中間幾個季度達到峰值，並在 2026 年年中左右消退，若確認已見頂，將是可以放鬆政策的一個信號。​
• 服務業通膨持續降溫，通膨預期（市場與調查指標）大致錨定在 2% 長期目標附近，顯示對回到目標仍有信心。​
• 實體經濟方面，消費支出具韌性、企業固定投資持續，近期 GDP 年增看似偏強，全年增速更接近略高於 2%，並部分受 AI 相關數據中心投資帶動。​

就業與勞動市場

• 勞動市場此前明顯走軟，目前出現「趨於穩定」的蛛絲馬跡：失業率約 4.4%，近月變化不大，非農新增職位低但穩定。​
• 職缺、裁員、招聘與名目薪資增速近月變化不大；更寬鬆口徑的 U-6 失業率與因經濟原因的兼職比例上升，顯示勞動市場確有疲軟。​
• 鮑威爾評估：通膨上行風險與就業下行風險相較之前都已減弱，但雙重使命兩端仍存在張力，未完全平衡。​

關於美元、財政與 AI

• 對近期美元走弱及波動，鮑威爾完全避免置評，重申匯率政策屬財政部職責，美聯儲不評論美元水準與驅動因素。​
• 他再度強調，美國當前財政路徑「毫無疑問是不可持續的」，認為在接近充分就業的環境下仍運行巨大赤字，問題終究必須處理，越早越好，但目前尚未反映成短期市場衝擊。​
• 對 AI，他指出短期內可能會淘汰部分工作崗位，尤其是入門級職位，但從歷史經驗看，技術進步最終會提升生產率與長期薪資水準，目前對 AI 的宏觀影響仍高度不確定，美聯儲正密切研究。​

美聯儲獨立性與個人去留

給下一任主席的首要建議是「遠離民選政治」，並積極與國會溝通，以維持民主問責與信任。

鮑威爾多次拒絕就自身任期屆滿後去留、國會調查及具名參議員的政治施壓發言，僅重申不在此場合討論政治問題。​

他強調，美聯儲獨立性對於避免貨幣政策被選舉政治利用至關重要，一旦失去獨立與公信力，極難恢復，並表示自己與同僚對維護獨立性有非常堅定的承諾。​

2026 年 1 月 FOMC 聲明相對 2025 年 12 月關鍵措辭變化

• 對經濟活動，從「以溫和速度擴張」上調為「以穩健速度擴張」，語氣更偏樂觀。
• 對就業，由「就業增長放緩」改為「就業增長仍然緩慢」，並新增「失業率已顯現出一定的企穩跡象」。
• 刪除了「失業率截至 9 月有所上升」以及「判斷就業下行風險最近幾個月有所上升」等偏擔憂勞動市場風險的說法，整體對勞動市場評價略偏正面。
• 通脹由「較年初有所上升」調整為「依然略高」，語氣變化不大，但不再強調與年初比較，而是直接描述通脹水平略高。
• 利率決策維持聯邦基金利率目標區間在 3.50%–3.75%，聲明強調將視未來數據、前景和風險平衡，決定進一步調整的幅度與時機，並重申對最大化就業與 2% 通脹目標的承諾。
• 本次會議有兩張反對票：理事斯蒂芬·米蘭和沃勒，都支持此次會議降息 25bp。
• 米蘭此前三次會議連續主張降息 50bp，此次則支持降 25bp；沃勒這次投下贊成降息 25bp 的反對票，被視為其作為下一任美聯儲主席候選人的一個「加分點」，符合川普偏好鴿派候選人的考量。

UST 10s rose 3bp to 4.25% overnight amid FOMC statement noted solid growth, stabilizing unemployment, elevated inflation. The FOMC voted 10 to 2 to keep the target range for federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller voted against the action in favour of a 25bp cut. In the press conference, Chair Powell painted an upbeat assessment of the economic outlook but still sounded concerned over the labour market. He stopped short of saying the risks to employment and inflation were in balance. The chair suggested the FOMC is going to be data dependent. He did not sound like there is a rush to cut, but he also portrayed an FOMC where no one is thinking about hikes either, and the baseline direction of travel is rates going lower from here. The level of rates was described as loosely neutral or somewhat restrictive. Meanwhile, Economist Jonathan Pingle sees that the FOMC statement got some needed clean-up in language after the additions made through 2025. US HY CDS widened 2bp to 271bp, IG steady .2s10s curve steepened 5bp to +0.71%, 5s30s unchanged as 30s held near 4.85%.

U.S. November durable goods orders (preliminary) rose 5.3% month-over-month, while core durable goods orders (preliminary) grew 0.5% month-over-month, both beating expectations and marking the largest increase in six months, supported by strong demand for commercial aircraft and other capital equipment. The 2-year U.S. Treasury auction held overnight showed strong demand, with combined direct and indirect bidding accounting for 92.7%, up from 87.3% previously. The bid-to-cover ratio reached 2.75 times, compared with 2.54 times at the prior auction. The high yield came in at 3.580%, around 1.4 basis points below the pre-auction when-issued yield. Treasury yields initially faced upward pressure from robust supply data but eased following the auction. The 2-year yield edged down 0.4 bps to close at 3.59%; the 5-year yield fell 0.5 bps to 3.82%; the 10-year yield declined 1.4 bps to 4.21%; and the 30-year yield dropped 2.4 bps to 4.80%. On the curve, spreads flattened: the 2s10s positive spread narrowed to 62.1 bps, while the 5s30s positive spread closed at 98.3 bps. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to trade in the 4.18–4.24% range today, showing a mildly bullish consolidation. Later tonight, the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be released, followed by a $70 billion 5-year Treasury auction in the early morning.

UST yields edged lower on Friday amid resilient labor data and improved consumer sentiment. The 10Y closed at 4.23% (-2bp), 2Y at 3.59% (-1.2bp), 5Y at 3.82% (-2.1bp), and 30Y at 4.83% (-1.1bp); 2s10s spread steady at +63.1bp, 5s30s at +100.2bp. Initial jobless claims printed 200k (week ending Jan 17, vs prior 199k), while Michigan sentiment final rose to 56.4 (5-mth high) with 1Y/5Y+ inflation expecs easing to 4.0%/3.3%; Trump reiterated Powell criticisms. US IG/HY CDS and iTraxx Main/Xover steady; today’s 10Y range 4.20-4.25%, ahead of durable goods (tonight) and $69B 2Y auction (early Tue).

UST yields eased overnight with 10Y down 4bp to 4.251% after peaking above 4.3%; 2s10s curve flattened marginally as 2Y held steady at ~3.59% while 30Y fell 5bp. Moves followed recent Beige Book noting modest growth rebound post-shutdown, with contained inflation but tariff cost pressures emerging; no fresh data prints yesterday. US HY CDS widened ~8bp to 273bp, IG stable.