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Last night, the US released the January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final) at 52.4, a slight upward revision and better than the prior reading. The ISM Manufacturing Index printed 52.6, the fastest pace of expansion since 2022, mainly driven by strong growth in new orders and production, while the employment and supply chain transportation components also rose significantly. Federal Reserve officials’ remarks leaned hawkish. Atlanta Fed President Bostic (a voting member next year) stated that he sees economic growth momentum as very strong, that policy rates need to be kept at a moderately restrictive level, and that he does not expect any rate cuts this year. US Treasury yields turned bearish and moved higher on the back of the strong cyclical data. The 2‑year Treasury yield rose 4.9 bps to close at 3.57%; the 5‑year rose 4.7 bps to 3.83%; the 10‑year rose 4.2 bps to 4.28%; and the 30‑year rose 3.9 bps to 4.91%. On the spread side, the yield curve saw a slight flattening, with the positive 2s10s spread closing at 70.6 bps and the positive 5s30s spread closing at 107.7 bps. Today, the 10‑year US Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate in a 4.24–4.32% range, with the market tone still tilted bearish. Labor market and activity data to be released over the next two days will be key. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will also hold its policy meeting this morning.