UST 10s rose 3bp to 4.25% overnight amid FOMC statement noted solid growth, stabilizing unemployment, elevated inflation. The FOMC voted 10 to 2 to keep the target range for federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller voted against the action in favour of a 25bp cut. In the press conference, Chair Powell painted an upbeat assessment of the economic outlook but still sounded concerned over the labour market. He stopped short of saying the risks to employment and inflation were in balance. The chair suggested the FOMC is going to be data dependent. He did not sound like there is a rush to cut, but he also portrayed an FOMC where no one is thinking about hikes either, and the baseline direction of travel is rates going lower from here. The level of rates was described as loosely neutral or somewhat restrictive. Meanwhile, Economist Jonathan Pingle sees that the FOMC statement got some needed clean-up in language after the additions made through 2025. US HY CDS widened 2bp to 271bp, IG steady .2s10s curve steepened 5bp to +0.71%, 5s30s unchanged as 30s held near 4.85%.
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