UST yields edged higher across the curve amid resilient labor data and tempered Fed cut expectations. The 10Y yield climbed 3bp to 4.17%, while 2Y advanced 5bp to 3.57%; 30Y held steady near 4.80%. IG corporate OAS tightened marginally to 77bp, reflecting robust demand despite heavy issuance, with HY spreads stable. Curve steepened slightly as short-end outperformance reflected market pricing just two 25bp Fed cuts in 2026, pushed to mid-year post strong jobless claims at 198k versus 215k forecast. Equities dipped on bank/tech weakness, boosting haven flows into longer USTs early, but yields rebounded on positive regional manufacturing surveys. Credit sectors advanced, IG returning 0.34% outpacing Treasuries by 9bp on 4x oversubscription; munis saw $1.5B inflows amid declining yields. Outlook favors modest yield upside to 4.4-4.55% on 10Y amid fiscal resilience, tariff revenues narrowing SOFR-Treasury spread to 35bp from 55bp, and muted easing. Portfolio managers should extend duration selectively in 3Y-10Y while monitoring IG/HY for value amid rich valuations but steady economic growth. Risks tilt toward volatility from geopolitics and deficit dynamics, favoring barbell strategies blending credit and Treasuries.
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