Offline24h

UST curve bull-flattened modestly as short-end yields edged higher amid mixed economic signals, while 10Y held steady near 4.18% before ticking up to 4.186% late session. 2Y yield climbed +5bp to 3.54% from 3.49%, reflecting persistent front-end pressure from Fed policy bets, with 3Y at 3.56% up +3bp. IG corporate spreads tightened to 74bps OAS, supporting 0.34% weekly returns despite record $88B new issuance, outpacing Treasuries by 9bp on robust 4x oversubscription. HY advanced 0.39% with +37bp excess return over duration equivalents, absorbing $9.7B supply via steady inflows. MBS and munis declined in yield with positive flows, though EM debt lagged on outflows. IG YTW at 4.81% offers modest income amid rich valuations in 2nd percentile historically. Outlook favors duration extension if Fed cuts materialize, but hawkish data risks +10-15bp 10Y rally; credit stays resilient barring spread widening >20bp. Heavy 2026 supply projected >$2T tests demand, tilting strategy defensive in IG, opportunistic in HY. Curve steepener trades viable if 2s10s widens beyond 65bp.