Offline24h

UST curve flattened mildly as 2Y yield rose 2bp to 4.25% amid resilient economic data while 10Y held steady at 4.17% post modest overnight gains. IG spreads tightened 3bp to 95bp on sustained demand, with HY OAS narrowing 3bp to 2.76% reflecting low default risk and technical buying. MBS outperformed amid softer JOLTS figures signaling cooling labor market, supporting Fed cut expectations into Q1. EM debt rallied 5bp tighter on USD weakness and $1.5B inflows, extending 2025’s 10.9% YTD return. Curve steepening paused with 2s10s spread at +55bp; short-end pressure from BoJ hike offsets ECB hold. Credit sectors resilient despite thin liquidity, favoring carry trades over duration bets. Outlook tilts constructive for risk assets as spreads near tights limit upside but cushion volatility with yields above averages. Watch upcoming CPI and budget data for curve pivot risks; favor IG/HY over long UST amid sticky inflation. Position for 25bp Fed trim in March, hedging tail risk via payers in swaps.