Offline24h

UST benchmarks edged lower amid mixed economic signals and positioning ahead of year-end. 10Y yield dipped 2bp to 4.13% from 4.15%, while 2Y fell 3bp to 3.46% and 3Y eased to 3.50%. Curve steepened slightly with 10Y-2Y spread widening to 67bp, reflecting hawkish Fed guidance post recent 25bp cut. IG corporate spreads held steady near 94bp, Baa yields slipped to 5.93% from 5.95%, supported by robust issuance absorption and solid earnings. HY retreated -0.13%, underperforming Treasuries by 17bp amid $7.1B supply, though senior loans gained 0.13% on lower rates. EM debt outperformed by 13bp, spreads stable with $27B YTD inflows. MBS and munis showed resilience, latter well bid on reinvestment flows exceeding $40B. Volatility ticked up in bid-ask spreads, signaling caution. Outlook favors resilient income absent credit shocks; term premiums may rise into 2026 on fiscal policy and M&A-driven supply nearing $1tn in dollar corporates. Investors eye curve belly for value, with spreads poised to widen modestly on capex and reverse Yankees. Positioning skews defensive, balancing duration risk against attractive all-in yields.