UST yields ticked higher amid positioning for the upcoming Fed meeting, with 10Y rising to 4.13% on Dec 8 before easing slightly to 4.134%. 2Y yield climbed 4bp to 3.61%, while 3Y reached 3.64%, steepening the curve as short-end lagged longer maturities. IG corporates outperformed Treasuries by 27bp last week despite -0.47% total return, with spreads tightening on $6.1B inflows and robust supply absorption exceeding full-year forecasts. HY corporates gained 0.12% and senior loans +0.27%, beating benchmarks by 33bp amid $1.2B HY inflows, though loan funds saw outflows. Muni yields held steady with $736M inflows against $16.6B supply, supported by reinvestment cash. Curve steepening reflects resilient labor data and 89% odds of 25bp Fed cut, tempering aggressive easing bets. Credit sectors resilient as spreads near multi-year tights (IG OAS ~74bp), but tariff risks and equity volatility cap upside. Outlook favors duration extension in intermediates if Fed delivers, yet persistent inflation and fiscal dynamics support elevated 10Y/30Y yields around 4.8%. Portfolio managers eye barbell strategies blending IG/HY for yield pickup while hedging curve risk via swaps. Volatility may rise post-FOMC, with auctions testing demand.
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