Offline24h

UST 10Y yield fell 3bp to 4.06% amid dovish Fed signals and weak ADP payrolls dropping 32k, signaling labor softening. Curve flattened as 2Y declined 2bp to 3.49% and 3Y dropped 4bp to 3.50%, while 30Y eased 1bp to 4.73%. IG corporate spreads widened 3bp to 85bp on heavy $45B supply despite $6B inflows, with new deals 4x oversubscribed. Markets priced 89% odds for 25bp Fed cut next week, ending QT but eyeing higher bill purchases to ease funding stress. IG corporates gained 0.40% but trailed Treasuries by -15bp; HY and EM credits advanced on resilient growth outlook. Forward rates decoupled, 5y1y down 80bp but 10y1y up 40bp, hinting long-end term premium rise from fiscal deficits. Credit remains attractive with tight spreads offering yield protection; longs recover in Q4 but lag YTD. Outlook favors duration extension if Dec cut confirms, though Japan hike risks repatriation pressure on UST; watch nonfarm payrolls for rate path clues.