UST yields saw broad upward pressure across the curve, reflecting the market’s aggressive repricing of policy expectations. Strong economic indicators and persistently firm inflation outlooks fueled a definitive bear flattening move. The 2Y UST yield climbed 12bp, demonstrating acute sensitivity to Fed policy projections. Concurrently, the 10Y UST yield rose 8bp, establishing a foothold above 4.25%. The resulting tighter 2Y/10Y curve inversion signaled elevated terminal rate conviction. Money market pricing drastically pared back easing expectations, pushing the probability of a year-end rate cut below 45%. Duration exposure proved highly unprofitable as momentum favored outright short positions. Supply risks, particularly in the long-end, compounded the weakness, driving real yields higher. Global fixed income markets tracked the UST trajectory: European sovereign yields followed directionally, cementing the higher-for-longer narrative globally. Rate volatility remained elevated, confirming ongoing policy uncertainty. The technical outlook suggests continued yield pressure; the 10Y UST is poised to test the 4.35% resistance level if data momentum persists. Market consensus shifts decisively against early 2026 easing. This repricing solidified the risk-off sentiment for fixed income investors.
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