UST yields edged lower on Monday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of key U.S. economic releases later this week. The 2Y yield eased 2bp to 3.97%, while the 10Y fell 3bp to 4.09%, modestly steepening the curve. The move reflected light position-squaring after last week’s volatile session driven by mixed retail sales and hawkish Fed rhetoric. Fed officials reiterated that policy remains data-dependent, but markets continued to price in a 25bp cut by year-end amid softening labor indicators and easing inflation expectations. The session saw subdued flows, with Treasury auctions well-received and corporate supply remaining thin. In Europe, Bund yields mirrored the U.S. move lower, with 10Y down 2bp to 2.30% following weaker-than-expected German PPI data. Meanwhile, gilts outperformed as investors trimmed risk exposure ahead of U.K. CPI figures due mid-week. The broader fixed-income tone stayed constructive, supported by expectations of a near-term Fed pause and slowing global growth momentum. Still, traders remain wary that elevated term premium and heavy issuance could cap further rally potential, keeping yields range-bound into month-end.
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