UST yields retraced a portion of prior declines as global capital flows rotated back into U.S. duration in response to renewed dollar strength and sticky macro surprises. The 10Y climbed back toward ~4.14% from lower levels, underpinned by supply stress and term premium repricing, while 2Y held relatively stable near ~3.53%, causing modest steepening in the curve. Treasury and corporate issuance remained heavy, placing reluctance on aggressive yield compression even amid dovish expectations. Market participants flagged that the rebound was less about hawkish repricing and more about positioning adjustments and reduced conviction in a clean path to cuts. The takeaway: unless fresh inflation data, Fed commentary, or fiscal developments disrupt the narrative, long bonds may struggle to break materially lower.
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