UST yields first dipped modestly as dovish cues—especially Miran’s comments supporting calm in the bond market—temporarily softened hawkish anxiety, prompting brief safe-haven flows. However, the relief was short lived: long end yields rebounded as inflation surprises and persistent fiscal issuance fears reignited caution. By day’s end, 10Y was hovering near 4.10% (down ~2bp intraday before bouncing), 2Y held near ~3.56%, and 30Y eased slightly to ~4.70% as market positioning and conviction were tested. Issuance pressure remained a key headwind: dealers reportedly demanded more concessions on new paper, limiting downward scope for yields. The flip in sentiment underscores how dependent the bond market is on policy nuance—any perceived hawkish slip in language or data trigger reversals. With shutdown risk still unresolved and economic fundamentals teetering between soft and sticky, upcoming CPI/PCE prints and the Fed minutes will be critical in adjudicating whether the recent slide in yields has legs or is merely a bounce in a broadly cautious trading range.
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