Offline24h

UST yields retraced earlier declines and ticked higher as the market grappled with heavy bond supply, political risk around a looming shutdown, and mixed interpretations of Fed communication. The 10Y yield rose ~4.145% (−4.3 bp intraday decline reported later) as investors digested both hawkish cues and lingering expectations for future cuts. The supply effect was evident: “Yields inch higher driven by busy bond supply” was a prevailing narrative, particularly as large corporate and Treasury issuances pressured demand. Analysts attributed yield gains more to technical and issuance pressures than fundamental shifts in macro views. While underlying rate-cut expectations held, markets showed increased sensitivity to incoming inflation data and Fed signals—Powell’s more cautious stance earlier in the week had already pulled back some dovish exuberance. With the shutdown risk also in play, safe-haven demand showed up erratically rather than consistently. Investors now focus on upcoming core PCE and labor reports for clarity on whether the tenor of policy will tilt back dovish or stay more balanced.