Stronger U.S. macro prints and reduced Fed easing expectations drove UST yields higher across the curve, with UST 10Y climbing toward ~4.17% as markets scaled back rate-cut bets following upside GDP revisions and solid capital goods orders; the 2Y followed suit amid hawkish repricing. This move confirmed that while policy easing remains on the table, investors are growing wary of upside inflation risk and fiscal strain, pushing term premiums wider. In this environment, Treasury demand faces headwinds from increased supply and lingering volatility, and forward curves are expected to increasingly hinge on upcoming core inflation prints and further Fed commentary.

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