Offline24h

Treasury yields drifted lower as fading labor momentum and inflation concerns bolstered expectations for a September rate cut, with UST10Y around 4.06% and UST2Y edging down toward ~3.56%, causing the 10-2 spread to widen back toward ~50 bp—the highest since early summer. A Reuters poll of bond strategists showed rising consensus for curve steepening in coming months driven by anticipated Fed easing and fiscal strain including tariff and deficit pressures. Term premium was cited as increasingly relevant, especially as long yields have held steady despite short-term rate drops. Investors now await core inflation prints, payroll revisions and Fed commentary to assess whether the disinflation theme holds or whether sticky price pressures and political interference risk derailing the easing narrative.