NFP rose just 22k in August vs 75k expected, with prior revised up to 79k, marking a sharp slowdown as manufacturing jobs fell for a fifth month and part-time hiring surged while full-time roles declined. Unemployment ticked up to 4.3% amid lower participation, average hourly earnings eased to 3.7% y/y, and Challenger layoffs plus elevated jobless claims confirmed labor weakness. Despite sticky inflation, Powell has shifted focus toward employment, with markets now pricing a September rate cut and higher odds of follow-ups in Oct and Dec. Fiscal discipline risks and questions over Fed independence remain, while lower-for-longer policy alongside deglobalization could lift term premium later, pressuring long-end yields. UST rallied hard on the data, with 10Y down 8.65bp to 4.0742% after trading 4.30–4.06% and 2Y sliding 7.86bp to 3.5092%, its lowest since 2022; Bund 10Y fell ~6bp and peripherals tightened up to 8bp. No major US data releases are scheduled today.

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