July PCE rose 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y, in line with expectations, while core PCE accelerated to 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y, the largest gain since Feb, underscoring renewed stickiness in services with financial services & insurance up 1.2%. Goods prices fell 0.1% on energy weakness (-1.7%). Personal spending surged 0.8% m/m, led by durables (+1.9% on autos) and services (+0.4%), offsetting softer labor momentum as 3M avg payroll gains slowed to 35k vs 123k a year ago. Trade data remained noisy with Jul deficit widening to $103.6bn on surging imports. While inflation shows signs of re-acceleration, robust consumption and elevated Michigan 1Y inflation expectations at 4.8% do not alter market conviction for H2 rate cuts, as Fed messaging at Jackson Hole emphasized risks now balanced between inflation and employment. Rates ended Aug with bull flattening: 2Y -34bp, 3Y -30bp, 10Y -15bp. NY close saw 10Y +2.5bp at 4.228%, 2Y -1.2bp at 3.617%. In contrast, fiscal concerns lifted French 30Y OAT +29bp in Aug. UST closed Monday for Labor Day with no key data due.

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