Offline24h

1. US Policies Reshape Global Market Landscape

At the beginning of 2025, US President Trump returned to office and launched a series of growth-stimulating policies, boosting optimism in the American market. However, as tariffs on 57 major trading partners increased from 10% to between 11% and 50%, the market experienced dramatic fluctuations. Within just a few days, the US stock market saw a sharp decline, with the S&P 500 dropping 9.52%, marking the largest single-day drop since 2008. Under intense pressure, the Trump administration suspended additional tariffs, leading to an immediate market rebound. Nonetheless, tariff policy uncertainty remains a major risk factor for global markets.

In addition, the Trump administration announced the purchase of a 9.9% stake in Intel and reached a revenue-sharing agreement with NVIDIA, drawing significant attention to tech stocks. NVIDIA’s market capitalization exceeded $4 trillion, with earnings per share expected to grow 48%, creating strong market expectations for its financial reports. However, caution remains regarding potential restrictions the US government may impose on Chinese high-tech companies.

2. AI Tech Stocks: Boom and Adjustment

The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology sparked a tech stock frenzy in 2025. Yet, as market expectations for AI profitability became overly optimistic, some tech stocks became overvalued. Companies like NVIDIA experienced significant short-term price volatility, raising concerns about an AI bubble. Experts note that while AI has long-term potential, short-term valuation adjustments are likely.

In this context, investors should carefully evaluate the financial health and market prospects of AI-related companies to avoid blindly following hype. Focusing on firms with stable profitability and clear business models can help mitigate risk.

3. European Market Recovery and Challenges

The European market showed signs of recovery in 2025. Measures such as the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate cuts and Germany’s expanded fiscal stimulus boosted market confidence. Additionally, a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and post-war reconstruction provided new economic momentum. However, risks remain, including global economic slowdown and inflation pressures. Experts suggest investors focus on sectors like consumer goods, infrastructure, and defense for potential opportunities.

Despite recovery signs, challenges persist. Some European countries have fragile fiscal situations that could impact government spending and growth. Moreover, global trade uncertainty may pressure European exports. Investors should carefully select investment targets and avoid over-concentration in a single sector or country.

4. Structural Challenges in China’s Economy

China’s economy faced several structural challenges in 2025. Youth unemployment remained high, with some young people participating in “pretend work” services to cope with employment pressure. In addition, capital outflows and weak domestic demand affected economic stability. Experts highlight the need for deeper reforms and the promotion of high-quality employment to address these challenges.

The Chinese government pledged to increase policy support to stimulate growth, but the effectiveness of these measures will take time to materialize and may be influenced by external factors. Investors should cautiously evaluate risks and opportunities in the Chinese market and avoid over-reliance on a single economy.

5. Risks of Global Economic Slowdown

According to UN forecasts, global economic growth in 2025 is projected to slow to 2.8%, primarily due to conflicts and inflationary pressures. Although countries like China, the US, India, and Indonesia show strong performance, global growth remains weak. The World Bank further lowered its global growth forecast to 2.3%, warning that trade tensions could further exacerbate uncertainty.

Investors should be aware of risks from a slowing global economy and adjust investment strategies accordingly. Diversifying asset allocation and reducing dependence on a single market or industry is advised to mitigate risk.

6. Future Outlook: Uncertainty and Opportunities Coexist

Looking ahead, global markets face multiple uncertainties. Changes in tariff policies, AI technology development, and geopolitical risks will affect market trends. However, these challenges also create new investment opportunities. Experts recommend focusing on sectors with long-term growth potential, such as AI and green energy, while maintaining flexible strategies to navigate market volatility.

Investors should closely monitor central bank monetary policy, especially decisions by the US Federal Reserve. Changes in monetary policy directly influence market liquidity and asset prices, requiring timely adjustments to investment portfolios.