Offline24h

Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.3% from 3.0% and above the 3.1% consensus, driven by stronger IP and equipment investment linked to AI and firmer consumption, though volatile trade flows distorted the headline, suggesting slower momentum ahead. Corporate profits rebounded by $65.5bn after Q1 weakness, with core margins steady at 20.8%, showing resilience despite tariff pressures, though firms like Caterpillar and GM flagged risks to earnings. Jobless claims fell to 229k from 234k, with continuing claims easing to 1.954mn, highlighting a labor market stuck in “no hiring, no firing” mode as tighter immigration policy curbs supply and tempers unemployment risk. While profits and demand support growth, the mix of slowing jobs and tariff headwinds keeps focus on the Fed’s Sep decision and the potential restart of rate cuts. USTs were mixed, with 10Y yields down 3bp to 4.209% while 2Y rose 3bp to 3.635%. Market attention now shifts to July PCE inflation and Aug Michigan sentiment, with consensus for PCE to hold at 2.6% y/y, core PCE to tick up to 2.9%, and sentiment steady at 58.6.