Offline24h

July new home sales slowed to an annualized pace of 652k, down 0.6% m/m and 8.2% y/y, as higher mortgage rates and softer labor conditions continued to weigh on demand. Despite June being revised up to 656k and the 30Y mortgage rate easing to 6.58%, wage growth decelerated to 3.9%, leaving affordability under pressure. Median new home prices fell 5.9% y/y to $403.8k, an 8-month low, while inventory held at 499k units with a 9.2-month supply, underscoring weak absorption. Builder discounting reached the highest since 2022, signaling fragile demand and expectations that residential investment will contract for a third straight quarter, with inventory overhang further limiting near-term starts. In rates, European sovereigns were pressured as French 30Y yields hit a near 14-year high on fiscal concerns, spilling over to peripherals, while USTs edged higher with 10Y closing at 4.279% (+3bp) after trading 4.26%-4.29% and 2Y ending at 3.726% (+3bp) within a 3.70%-3.73% range. Attention now shifts to July durable goods, capex orders, FHFA home prices, and Aug consumer confidence, with consensus pointing to partial rebounds in orders but softer sentiment.