Last night, the United States released the final January S&P Services PMI at 52.7, a slight upward revision and better than the prior reading; the ISM Services Index came in at 53.8, above expectations but unchanged from the previous figure. Slower growth in new orders and employment offset the accelerated expansion in services output, while…

Last night, the release of the U.S. JOLTS jobs data was postponed due to the partial shutdown of the federal government, while comments from Federal Reserve officials were mixed in tone. Richmond Fed President Barkin, a voting member next year, said that last year’s rate cuts helped support the labor market and that policymakers are…

Last night, the US released the January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final) at 52.4, a slight upward revision and better than the prior reading. The ISM Manufacturing Index printed 52.6, the fastest pace of expansion since 2022, mainly driven by strong growth in new orders and production, while the employment and supply chain transportation components…

U.S. December PPI year-on-year came in at 3.0%, and core PPI year-on-year at 3.3%, slightly above both expectations and the prior readings, with service costs surging and data showing that an increasing number of companies are gradually passing on tariff costs, raising concerns that inflationary pressures may remain elevated.U.S. President Trump said on Friday that…

Last night, the U.S. reported November factory orders rising 2.7% month-on-month, beating expectations and the prior reading. Durable goods orders (final) increased 5.3% MoM, while core durable goods orders (final) rose 0.4%, mainly driven by transportation. Initial jobless claims came in at 209,000, slightly above the four-week average of 206,000; continuing claims stood at 1.827…

​ 政策與利率立場 通膨、關稅與經濟前景 就業與勞動市場 關於美元、財政與 AI 美聯儲獨立性與個人去留 給下一任主席的首要建議是「遠離民選政治」，並積極與國會溝通，以維持民主問責與信任。 鮑威爾多次拒絕就自身任期屆滿後去留、國會調查及具名參議員的政治施壓發言，僅重申不在此場合討論政治問題。​ 他強調，美聯儲獨立性對於避免貨幣政策被選舉政治利用至關重要，一旦失去獨立與公信力，極難恢復，並表示自己與同僚對維護獨立性有非常堅定的承諾。​ 2026 年 1 月 FOMC 聲明相對 2025 年 12 月關鍵措辭變化

UST 10s rose 3bp to 4.25% overnight amid FOMC statement noted solid growth, stabilizing unemployment, elevated inflation. The FOMC voted 10 to 2 to keep the target range for federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller voted against the action in favour of a 25bp cut. In the…

U.S. November durable goods orders (preliminary) rose 5.3% month-over-month, while core durable goods orders (preliminary) grew 0.5% month-over-month, both beating expectations and marking the largest increase in six months, supported by strong demand for commercial aircraft and other capital equipment. The 2-year U.S. Treasury auction held overnight showed strong demand, with combined direct and indirect…

UST yields edged lower on Friday amid resilient labor data and improved consumer sentiment. The 10Y closed at 4.23% (-2bp), 2Y at 3.59% (-1.2bp), 5Y at 3.82% (-2.1bp), and 30Y at 4.83% (-1.1bp); 2s10s spread steady at +63.1bp, 5s30s at +100.2bp. Initial jobless claims printed 200k (week ending Jan 17, vs prior 199k), while Michigan…

UST yields eased overnight with 10Y down 4bp to 4.251% after peaking above 4.3%; 2s10s curve flattened marginally as 2Y held steady at ~3.59% while 30Y fell 5bp. Moves followed recent Beige Book noting modest growth rebound post-shutdown, with contained inflation but tariff cost pressures emerging; no fresh data prints yesterday. US HY CDS widened…